“Nor is this the only eye-catching consequence of the election - Nepal's first for almost a decade. The clear winner, popularly known as Prachanda ("fierce" or "awesome"), is on course to lead the world's only elected Maoist government. The full results are not yet known, but Prachanda's movement has already won 116 seats in the 601-seat assembly that will shape the country's constitutional future. Even if the Maoists fail to win an outright majority, they will have crushed Nepal's old political elite in a revolution far more sweeping than anyone had predicted: many observers thought they would do well to come third.”_______________________________
(April 16, London, Sri Lanka Guardian) The world's remaining monarchies have proved astonishingly durable: not since the Shah fled Iran in 1979 has an established monarch succumbed to republicanism. That makes Nepal's transition to republican democracy, a process that appears unstoppable after this month's general election, all the more remarkable.
Nepal's old ruling class has been swept away in shocking and unexpected fashion by the Maoist rebels who once fought it at gunpoint. King Gyanendra, who attempted to take absolute power only three years ago, is now cowering in his palace. Protesters are demanding that he hand it over to the people and flee.
Nor is this the only eye-catching consequence of the election - Nepal's first for almost a decade. The clear winner, popularly known as Prachanda ("fierce" or "awesome"), is on course to lead the world's only elected Maoist government. The full results are not yet known, but Prachanda's movement has already won 116 seats in the 601-seat assembly that will shape the country's constitutional future. Even if the Maoists fail to win an outright majority, they will have crushed Nepal's old political elite in a revolution far more sweeping than anyone had predicted: many observers thought they would do well to come third.
The result reflects the worries of the Nepali poor, who have suffered most from their country's instability and lack of growth. Almost a third of Nepal's 25 million people live below the poverty line; national per capita income is only $260 a year. The failure of the old political order was confirmed in bloody fashion in 2001, when Crown Prince Dipendra shot and killed most of his family, including his father, King Birendra. But the Maoists - regarded by the United States as a terrorist organisation - will not find the transition from war to government easy. From 1996 until a ceasefire in 2005, Prachanda led an insurgency that cost the lives of some 13,000 people, many at the hands of government armed forces. Prachanda needs to restrain victorious Maoist mobs and find some sort of accommodation with the army.
He must also reassure China and India, Nepal's two huge and powerful neighbours, alarmed by the prospect of Maoist rule. India faces a Maoist insurgency of its own; China scents opportunity in a country with huge natural resources. Interviewed last week by the Guardian, Prachanda spoke of his conversion to multi-party democracy and "a capitalistic mode of production". Does he mean it? Nepal's new rulers promise that they have rejected violence, but the election was not wholly peaceful. Revolutions create hopes that cannot be fulfilled. Nepal wants change. Bringing it about will be Prachanda's great test.
- Sri Lanka Guardian
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