Is Hakeem walking on a sharp knife?

“In the light of a 'New Delhi hand behind the bush', the ruling leadership even considered whether the polls should be called off. Such a postponement would have been put on security grounds. However, saner counsel prevailed. And behind the scenes, a string of measures are under way to deny the opposition any opportunity of winning the Eastern Provincial polls. One of the prime movers behind the exercise is Basil Rajapaksa, senior Advisor to the President and the man who is personally spearheading development programmes in the East.”
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(April 08, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) It was June 20, 2001. Rauff Hakeem had just walked across the aisle in parliament into opposition ranks and dealt a death blow to the second Chandrika Kumaratunga administration. He sat among journalists in one of the parliament dining rooms and mused aloud of the crossover of the seven SLMC parliamentarians. "My neck is on the line," he said.

His neck is once again on the line - last week he upped the stakes in next month's Eastern Provincial Council election by resigning from his parliament seat, along with two of his close associates, to run in the polls.

And now, a Provincial Council election, set for May 10, will determine whether the new process in the East will take a turn for the worse or call a halt for good. The turn for the worse will be if the ruling United People's Freedom Alliance, its ally the TMVP and now renegade Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) top ranger M.L.A.M. Hisbullah, win the mandate of voters in the East - the districts of Trincomalee, Batticaloa and Ampara.

Hisbullah who has twice defected from the SLMC was also critical of the SLMC Leader. "He has proved himself a political failure. The Muslims need to be heard. That's why I am here together with other Muslim leaders who advocate a massive eastern voice for the Muslim community."

Irked by the defection, Party Leader Rauf Hakeem claimed that some party members have been conspiring to destroy the party but expressed confidence in the unwavering loyalty of SLMC supporters.

Matching words with action, Hakeem struck a deal with the UNP and promptly resigned from his seat together with Party General Secretary, Hasan Ali and Basheer Segu Dawood to contest the polls. As things stand, the three SLMC members will provide leadership to the three districts in the UNP-SLMC joint campaign to capture political power in the east.

The SLMC's massive entry will work in their favour, opines UNP General Secretary Tissa Attanayake.

It will be a different story if the alliance between the main opposition the United National Party (UNP) and the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) have their way. There is no doubt they will provide the UPFA-TMVP formidable opposition and that fact has caused considerable concern at the highest levels of the ruling leadership.

In a climate where everything that moves or speaks is a suspect, how the Opposition alliance came to be born is interesting. They believe both Opposition and UNP leader, Ranil Wickremesinghe as well as SLMC leader, Rauff Hakeem, had a string of meetings with India's High Commissioner Alok Prasad. It was only thereafter that Wickremesinghe had flown to New Delhi to attend a wedding reception of family friends after which he conferred with Indian Foreign Secretary Shiv Shanker Menon. Thus goes the theory that the new alliance had the 'blessings' of India.

In the light of a 'New Delhi hand behind the bush', the ruling leadership even considered whether the polls should be called off. Such a postponement would have been put on security grounds. However, saner counsel prevailed. And behind the scenes, a string of measures are under way to deny the opposition any opportunity of winning the Eastern Provincial polls. One of the prime movers behind the exercise is Basil Rajapaksa, senior Advisor to the President and the man who is personally spearheading development programmes in the East.

It was Basil Rajapaksa who was able to win over Hisbullah, a one-time Mangala Samaraweera protégé. Ranil Wickremasinghe was one of the first to learn of Hisbullah's cross-over to the Government. On his return from India on Sunday, Wickremesinghe had told Hakeem of the impending move by Hisbullah, who was being considered as a possible Chief Minister by the UNP-SLMC Alliance.

On Tuesday, the UNP and the SLMC leadership huddled for talks. The two sides were negotiating how to set about with a joint campaign. The UNP's Tamil representatives of the Eastern Province were demanding that the party have its own Chief Minister nominee and that if it is to be a Muslim, then it should go to Naushad Majeed of the UNP and no one else.

As the discussions were in progress, news came in that Hisbullah had gone across to the Government. This infuriated the SLMC leadership. They then adjourned and decided to meet at 10.30 that night. The SLMC immediately went into a crisis meeting and they were not ready to meet the UNP that night. It was only the next day that the SLMC emerged with their strategy - for Hakeem, Basheer Cegu Dawood and Hassan Ali - all Members of Parliament - to resign their seats in parliament and contest the Provincial Council elections. It was a strong response from the SLMC aimed at sending, in their way, a stinging message to the Government for having poached their members.

When the SLMC leadership met the UNP, they announced their decision and asked that the trio be permitted to lead the respective Districts, Hakeem (Trincomalee), Cegu Dawood (Batticaloa) and Ali (Ampara) in the Alliance. Wickremesinghe was to ask Hakeem if he was sure of the decision, and the risk involved. The UNP Tamils protested at the demand to make the Muslim Congress trio the District leaders, but Wickremesinghe was able to explain to them the wider interest in allowing this. He said that after-all, the SLMC leaders had sacrificed their parliamentary seats for this.

The UNP-SLMC Alliance then agreed that the two parties will campaign separately, the SLMC in the Muslim villages and the UNP in the Tamil villages. The UNP has also put forward some former MPs Sinnamaru, Sinna Thowfeek, Sunil Shantha Ranaweera etc., to Trincomalee, Galappati and Daya Gamage for Ampara, Arasaratnam Sashidharan to Batticaloa.

Fuelling speculation over the edge (some say it is more than an edge) the opposition alliance has is the belief that the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) would 'unofficially' back them.

The Muslim factor in the east cannot be undermined in the forthcoming Eastern Provincial Council elections due to the large number of Muslims in the province, which Hakeem thinks as his party’s strength in this poll.

Though Hakeem has taken up the challenge, it would be rather difficult for the SLMC to fight a government that has invested heavily in men and material in the area. Firstly, the government liberated the East from the clutches of the LTTE and deployed a heavy contingent of security personnel to maintain law and order in the face of imminent threats from the LTTE and thereafter, launched a massive development programme branded “Sun Rise Region Development”. With all this in place, are the people willing to reject the government’s candidates contesting under the UPFA banner? Given the circumstances, it is not only a challenge to Hakeem, but to the government too.

If the people in the East reject the government and elect the UNP instead, it would be a severe indictment on the government. On the other hand, Hakeem, who has resigned from Parliament, to take up the challenge, has to prove his mettle as a worthy leader, if his party is to survive in the East.

Hakeem would have felt that it was essential to contest and win at the Provincial Council, in the face of a growing personal political threat, especially after the government’s move to grab a few fellow members of the SLMC, including Hisbullah.

All in all, political analysts conclude that the Ranil-Hakeem combination in the East as being a formidable power block, which has caused problems for the government. Others are of the view that the government is already on the back foot and very selective of its political moves. However, at the same time, some others think that Hakeem has taken a calculated risk, as far as Muslim politics is concerned.
- Sri Lanka Guardian