“Prabhakaran is no detail, though. Jean-Paul Sartre once identified communism and anti-communism as the two greatest evils of the 20th century. In my mind, the two greatest evils to plague post-independent Sri Lanka are Sinhala nationalism and its Tamil counterpart. And who else embodies the full force of the latter than the LTTE leader? Blame past governments for half-hearted gropings for peace, as we must, but Prabhakaran with his tunnel vision of a separate state to be achieved at any cost is to be blamed for the present carnage as much as anyone else. It is his unrelenting fascism which begot the appalling Sinhala nationalist fascism we are facing today”.___________________________________
(March 03, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) Is Prabhakaran dead or alive? The government would have us believe that he’s dead from the recent deluge of bombs dropped on his hideouts. Most Sinhalese, if not all, want to see him dead. Even the Mahawamsa, it seems, does not have a greater villain plotting against the hearts and minds of the Sinhalese.
While I can’t bring myself to believe that he’s dead (history’s biggest tyrants are surprisingly long-lived, from Herod down to Franco and Pinochet in modern times, and even Eelam’s most unquestioning supporters will have to admit that the LTTE supremo is one), I must say that I won’t have any regrets hearing about his death, even though I’m not one of those who rejoice every time an LTTE leader is killed. As much as I disliked Thamilselvan, I wasn’t happy to hear about his death because you have to rise above the details to see the big picture, and he was no more than a detail in this grimmest of canvases.
Prabhakaran is no detail, though. Jean-Paul Sartre once identified communism and anti-communism as the two greatest evils of the 20th century. In my mind, the two greatest evils to plague post-independent Sri Lanka are Sinhala nationalism and its Tamil counterpart. And who else embodies the full force of the latter than the LTTE leader? Blame past governments for half-hearted gropings for peace, as we must, but Prabhakaran with his tunnel vision of a separate state to be achieved at any cost is to be blamed for the present carnage as much as anyone else. It is his unrelenting fascism which begot the appalling Sinhala nationalist fascism we are facing today.
Rather than jumping to conclusions about his death (as so many did following the tsunami) and rejoicing, it is more pertinent to ask – what would his death achieve at this point?
My guess is, only more chaos. I’m not a political analyst, nor a military one. But, having endured this mess all my adult life, I have gained a few insights, amongst which this happens to be foremost. As many would fondly like to believe, the LTTE isn’t going to disappear simply because its supreme leader is dead.
Of course that is a tempting argument because Prabhakaran has never named a successor. There is no established number two ready to step into the gap if he dies. Dictators don’t believe in their mortality, and Prabhakaran is too paranoid to let anyone else get so powerful within this very secretive organization. The closest anyone came to being No. 2 was when Mahattaya held sway, and we all know what happened to him.
If so, why shouldn’t the LTTE crumble if its supreme leader dies? Rivalries in second-level leadership are bound to emerge in that case. Unless they can agree on a successor, and unless that successor can command the same loyalty of his subordinates, the LTTE is bound to splinter. It may break up into several factions, none of them ready to give up the struggle, or it may metamorphose into an Iraq-style coalition of insurgents, bound loosely to a central source but operating independently. Anyone who finds a happy outcome in that scenario ought to get their heads examined.
Even assuming that the LTTE is militarily weakened to an extent where it will no longer count as a force representing Tamil political aspirations (I’m not assuming this by any means, but let’s say so for the sake of argument), the happy ending sought by the government – northern and eastern Tamils accepting the 13th amendment and all’s well that ends well) isn’t going to happen. My guess is that all the pro-government Tamil parties, including the EPDP, will step into that political vacuum, each claiming to be the sole representative of the Tamil people, and even my cat would be surprised if their demands stopped short of a federal state. With the LTTE gone, they’ll have nothing to fear and will naturally step up their demands.
All this is assuming that the government’s all-out war, at such terrible cost both in human and economic terms, will succeed in destroying the LTTE as a military force. President Rajapaksa is cocky nowadays that he’s talking about taking Prabhakaran alive. I’m no military analyst and, with little or no news to be had from independent sources about what’s actually happening in the battle areas, I have no idea what’s happening.
Even as astute an observer as Victor Ivan, editor of Ravaya, wrote in Montage last year that the LTTE could face military defeat at this rate.
In a recent Ravaya column, he took the view that Prabhakaran reached his peak during the CBK regime (taking Elephant Pass and attacking Katunayake international airport) but failed utterly politically during the ceasefire.
Therefore, he is a doomed force, having missed his moment in history.
The whole point is that, with or without Prabhakaran, the Tamil struggle for a viable political solution will go on, and it’s bound to be violent. Interestingly, the president said during the Walk the Talk interview granted to Indian TV that he will bring peace to the country within one year (the implication being that the war will end by then). His brother Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, in an interview with a Sinhala newspaper, said more cautiously that a time table cannot be given for defeating the LTTE. Maj. Gen. Sarath Fonseka, who commands the army, said in a press interview last month that the LTTE could be vanquished within this year (by August, if I remember correctly). In a more recent interview, however, he said that a time frame cannot be given, adding that it took one and a half years to liberate the East (the implication being that it could take as long, or longer, to take LTTE areas in the north).
What are we to gather from all these statements? The government, which must feel the enormous political pressures brought upon it by skyrocketing cost of living, should logically seek to finish off the much-weakened LTTE, said to be on its knees, as speedily as possible, so that it can divert its resources to keeping the lid on the socio-economic furnace. Instead, it has opted for a cautious, nibbling approach which can only mean another prolonged war.
When caution creeps into bravado, we can only presume that things aren’t going as well as all the propaganda would have us believe. We will know for sure only by this time next year. Also, even if Prabhakaran will be gone by then, Tamil demands for a fair political deal won’t be. If moderation doesn’t get into the driving seat on both seats at that point, this will only be the starting point of another generation of bloodshed, distrust and suffering.
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(March 03, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) Is Prabhakaran dead or alive? The government would have us believe that he’s dead from the recent deluge of bombs dropped on his hideouts. Most Sinhalese, if not all, want to see him dead. Even the Mahawamsa, it seems, does not have a greater villain plotting against the hearts and minds of the Sinhalese.
While I can’t bring myself to believe that he’s dead (history’s biggest tyrants are surprisingly long-lived, from Herod down to Franco and Pinochet in modern times, and even Eelam’s most unquestioning supporters will have to admit that the LTTE supremo is one), I must say that I won’t have any regrets hearing about his death, even though I’m not one of those who rejoice every time an LTTE leader is killed. As much as I disliked Thamilselvan, I wasn’t happy to hear about his death because you have to rise above the details to see the big picture, and he was no more than a detail in this grimmest of canvases.
Prabhakaran is no detail, though. Jean-Paul Sartre once identified communism and anti-communism as the two greatest evils of the 20th century. In my mind, the two greatest evils to plague post-independent Sri Lanka are Sinhala nationalism and its Tamil counterpart. And who else embodies the full force of the latter than the LTTE leader? Blame past governments for half-hearted gropings for peace, as we must, but Prabhakaran with his tunnel vision of a separate state to be achieved at any cost is to be blamed for the present carnage as much as anyone else. It is his unrelenting fascism which begot the appalling Sinhala nationalist fascism we are facing today.
Rather than jumping to conclusions about his death (as so many did following the tsunami) and rejoicing, it is more pertinent to ask – what would his death achieve at this point?
My guess is, only more chaos. I’m not a political analyst, nor a military one. But, having endured this mess all my adult life, I have gained a few insights, amongst which this happens to be foremost. As many would fondly like to believe, the LTTE isn’t going to disappear simply because its supreme leader is dead.
Of course that is a tempting argument because Prabhakaran has never named a successor. There is no established number two ready to step into the gap if he dies. Dictators don’t believe in their mortality, and Prabhakaran is too paranoid to let anyone else get so powerful within this very secretive organization. The closest anyone came to being No. 2 was when Mahattaya held sway, and we all know what happened to him.
If so, why shouldn’t the LTTE crumble if its supreme leader dies? Rivalries in second-level leadership are bound to emerge in that case. Unless they can agree on a successor, and unless that successor can command the same loyalty of his subordinates, the LTTE is bound to splinter. It may break up into several factions, none of them ready to give up the struggle, or it may metamorphose into an Iraq-style coalition of insurgents, bound loosely to a central source but operating independently. Anyone who finds a happy outcome in that scenario ought to get their heads examined.
Even assuming that the LTTE is militarily weakened to an extent where it will no longer count as a force representing Tamil political aspirations (I’m not assuming this by any means, but let’s say so for the sake of argument), the happy ending sought by the government – northern and eastern Tamils accepting the 13th amendment and all’s well that ends well) isn’t going to happen. My guess is that all the pro-government Tamil parties, including the EPDP, will step into that political vacuum, each claiming to be the sole representative of the Tamil people, and even my cat would be surprised if their demands stopped short of a federal state. With the LTTE gone, they’ll have nothing to fear and will naturally step up their demands.
All this is assuming that the government’s all-out war, at such terrible cost both in human and economic terms, will succeed in destroying the LTTE as a military force. President Rajapaksa is cocky nowadays that he’s talking about taking Prabhakaran alive. I’m no military analyst and, with little or no news to be had from independent sources about what’s actually happening in the battle areas, I have no idea what’s happening.
Even as astute an observer as Victor Ivan, editor of Ravaya, wrote in Montage last year that the LTTE could face military defeat at this rate.
In a recent Ravaya column, he took the view that Prabhakaran reached his peak during the CBK regime (taking Elephant Pass and attacking Katunayake international airport) but failed utterly politically during the ceasefire.
Therefore, he is a doomed force, having missed his moment in history.
The whole point is that, with or without Prabhakaran, the Tamil struggle for a viable political solution will go on, and it’s bound to be violent. Interestingly, the president said during the Walk the Talk interview granted to Indian TV that he will bring peace to the country within one year (the implication being that the war will end by then). His brother Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, in an interview with a Sinhala newspaper, said more cautiously that a time table cannot be given for defeating the LTTE. Maj. Gen. Sarath Fonseka, who commands the army, said in a press interview last month that the LTTE could be vanquished within this year (by August, if I remember correctly). In a more recent interview, however, he said that a time frame cannot be given, adding that it took one and a half years to liberate the East (the implication being that it could take as long, or longer, to take LTTE areas in the north).
What are we to gather from all these statements? The government, which must feel the enormous political pressures brought upon it by skyrocketing cost of living, should logically seek to finish off the much-weakened LTTE, said to be on its knees, as speedily as possible, so that it can divert its resources to keeping the lid on the socio-economic furnace. Instead, it has opted for a cautious, nibbling approach which can only mean another prolonged war.
When caution creeps into bravado, we can only presume that things aren’t going as well as all the propaganda would have us believe. We will know for sure only by this time next year. Also, even if Prabhakaran will be gone by then, Tamil demands for a fair political deal won’t be. If moderation doesn’t get into the driving seat on both seats at that point, this will only be the starting point of another generation of bloodshed, distrust and suffering.
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