Future of Dravidian Politics in Tamil Nadu

“The future does not seem too bright for both the Dravidian parties in the state. For the first time since 1967, when the DMK came to power defeating the Congress, the Tamil electorate denied an absolute majority to either of the Dravidian parties in the last Assembly elections.”

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by P.C. Vinoj Kumar

(March 17, Chennai, Sri Lanka Guardian) The biggest debate in Tamil Nadu politics today is whether the best days of the DMK and the AIADMK are behind them. The DMK, heading its first minority government, is struggling to hold its own against its belligerent allies. Over the past few days, it has been under attack from the PMK for not giving it a Rajya Sabha seat. Dr S. Ramadoss, the PMK chief, has been unsparing in his criticism of the DMK government’s functioning. Yet, the DMK has not had the guts to ask the party to leave the alliance. The present term in power has been a humbling experience for the oldest Dravidian party and its octogenarian leader M. Karunanidhi. In fact, it was the Congress that gave him trouble first.
Shortly after the elections, some Congress members tried their best to put in place a coalition government in the state. The DMK chief tided over the crisis by taking up the issue with Congress president Sonia Gandhi and got her to rein in those voicing the demand. This is Karunanidhi’s fifth term as CM, but never before has he been required to be at the mercy of his allies as now.

The only consolation for him is that his bete noire Jayalalithaa is also not on a strong wicket. The AIADMK supremo has no major allies on her side, except Vaiko’s MDMK. The PMK has made it clear it would not join hands with her even if it leaves the DMK alliance. Jayalalithaa stands politically isolated with only the BJP keen on striking an alliance with her. BJP leaders Ravi Shankar Prasad and Narendra Modi had met her sometime ago.

The future does not seem too bright for both the Dravidian parties in the state. For the first time since 1967, when the DMK came to power defeating the Congress, the Tamil electorate denied an absolute majority to either of the Dravidian parties in the last Assembly elections. The DMK was able to win just 96 seats out of the 132 it contested, falling 22 seats short of a majority in the 234- member House. The party was forced to form the government with the support of its allies — the Congress has 35 seats, PMK 18, CPM nine and CPI six. (Thirumavalavan’s Viduthalai Chiruthaigal, which contested the election as part of the AIADMK alliance and won two seats, joined the DMK camp later.)

At a time when the DMK and the AIADMK are in a state of decline, some recent entrants to the political field are buoyant. Heading the list is actor Vijaykanth’s Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), formed in 2005. His party fared beyond expectations in its first outing in the 2006 Assembly elections and secured about eight percent votes — about 28 lakh ballots. In the Madurai West bypoll last year, its performance was nearly as good as the AIADMK’s. It secured 21,272 votes while the AIADMK, which lost the seat to the Congress, got 29,818 votes. The result gave credence to the theory that the DMDK was eating into the AIADMK’s votes, especially the MGR vote bank.

Actor Sarath Kumar, who has launched a political party Akila Indiya Samathuva Makkal Katchi (AISMK), is yet to prove his strength in an election. Being a Nadar, he is counting on the support of his community to make his political presence. The Nadars are a dominant community in the southern districts. If Vijaykanth is being hailed as Karuppu MGR (Black MGR) by his supporters, Sarath has been dubbed Sigappu Kamaraj (Fair Kamaraj). The late Kamaraj, who was a Nadar as well, was chief minister of Tamil Nadu from the Congress. The two actors turned politicians have attacked both the Dravidian parties and their core ideologies. For instance, both have taunted the anti-Hindi policies of the DMK and the AIADMK. Vijaykanth has stated that it is good to learn any additional language, even if it is Hindi, besides one’s mother tongue. Sarath too has expressed similar views.

The BJP, which has been trying hard to get a toehold in the state, has been making unsuccessful attempts to win over both of them. But they seem to be keen on an alliance with the Congress. In fact, the AICC’s Tamil Nadu representative Arun Kumar recently had a long conversation with Vijaykanth on board a flight, where they are said to have discussed alliance matters. Exciting political possibilities seem to be in the offing in the state. And the coming Lok Sabha polls would give an indication as to whether the Dravidian parties have it in them to regain their lost glory or their era is over.


- Sri Lanka Guardian