“On the other hand, the Indian government has been providing Sri Lanka with weapons systems, albeit for defensive purposes, and training Sri Lankan military personnel in India. Recently India also invited the Sri Lankan army commander, General Sarath Fonseka for a visit where he was, by all accounts, very graciously hosted. This in turn led to an outburst from the LTTE which accused India of committing yet another blunder of historical proportions.”_________________________________
by Jehan Perera
(March 25, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) The Indian government has been making pronouncements that have a repetitive air about them. The gist of the message is that India does not believe there is a military solution to the ethnic conflict. Most the recently this position has been articulated by both Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh and by the Indian Defence Ministry. They have both said that only a political solution that is acceptable to all sectors of the people, including the Tamil community, will lead to peace. But it seems that the message is not getting through to its intended recipients.
In a letter to a pro-LTTE political leader in Tamil Nadu state, the Indian Prime Minister stated that “The way forward lies in a peacefully negotiated political settlement within the framework of a united Sri Lanka acceptable to all communities.” In its annual report to the Indian Parliament, the Defence Ministry stated that “We strongly believe that there is no military solution. What is required is a settlement of the political, constitutional and other issues within the framework of a united Sri Lanka which addresses the concerns of all communities, especially that of the ethnic minority.”
On the other hand, the Indian government has been providing Sri Lanka with weapons systems, albeit for defensive purposes, and training Sri Lankan military personnel in India. Recently India also invited the Sri Lankan army commander, General Sarath Fonseka for a visit where he was, by all accounts, very graciously hosted. This in turn led to an outburst from the LTTE which accused India of committing yet another blunder of historical proportions.
A similar double message to Sri Lanka also comes from the United States. On the one hand, the US State Department’s annual human rights report on Sri Lanka earned the ire of the Sri Lankan government. The report pointed to the most distressing features of the Sri Lankan crisis, including mass displacements, assassinations and abductions and disappearances which have been taking place with impunity. The value of this report for human rights defenders is that it documents several of the human rights violations and provides a credible reference point in the face of bland governmental denials.
On the other hand, and like India, the US government has been providing Sri Lanka with weapons for defensive purposes and also training its combat personnel. The question is what lies behind these mixed messages. There is insistence on a political solution and on political processes. At the same time there is a military strengthening of one of the parties. It would appear that the answer would need to be found in the context of three factors. These are the preservation of Sri Lanka’s territorial integrity, the unacceptability of the LTTE as it presently is, and the impracticability of a military solution.
Government’s miscalculation
As a longstanding member of the UN and the international community, and with its acceptance of nearly all international agreements on human rights and governance, Sri Lanka is well regarded in the world as a functioning democracy. Foreigners who visit Sri Lanka are usually impressed by what they see. As a result, with possibly a few exceptions, there is no desire within the international community to punish Sri Lanka. Instead there is a desire to assist it out of its protracted conflict.
In contrast to the acceptability that the government has, the LTTE has little or no international acceptability. It is evident that even the countries that have been most critical of the Sri Lankan government on account of its unwillingness or inability to prevent human rights abuses, have no desire to side with the LTTE. Those who have a knowledge of the Sri Lankan situation may believe that the LTTE has grown out of Tamil frustrations, but they are not prepared to accept the LTTE as it is.
It is this fundamental asymmetry between the government and LTTE that had led the most important countries in the international community to clearly side with the government in the conflict with the LTTE. The weapons and training that the Sri Lankan military obtains from countries such as the United States and India is to ensure that the LTTE does not get the military upper hand over the government. It is also to convince the LTTE that its own reliance on a military solution to the ethnic conflict is but a chimera. This is because the LTTE, and not only the government, believes in the possibility of a military solution.
The reality today is that the world’s biggest military powers, the United States, India, China and Pakistan have indirectly joined hands to support the Sri Lankan government in its confrontation with the LTTE. The problem is that the government apparently believes that this support will enable it to win the war against the LTTE and solve the problem. This is where the government and all those who have joined the bandwagon of war seem to be making a miscalculation.
The most powerful sections of the international community are militarily supporting the government to ensure that the LTTE does not once again get the military upper hand. They are thereby sending a clear message to the LTTE that its own reliance on a military solution cannot succeed. But they also insist, without exception, that human rights should not be violated and that the practice of impunity should cease because they believe that the ethnic conflict cannot be resolved by military means but requires a political solution.
Tibetan revolt
One of the most unexpected developments on the international scene has been the upsurge of Tibetan protests against Chinese rule. The forthcoming Olympic games in Beijing may have provided the Tibetans with an international window of opportunity. The Olympic games have focused attention on China and its internal affairs. There may also be rival powers that are encouraging the Tibetans to revolt. The Chinese government would feel keenly upset by this sudden turn of events and its response so far has been by police action and threats.
A more sophisticated strategy may emerge in a while. Sri Lanka may be able to learn some positive lessons in conflict resolution from its great friend which has more than 5000 years of unbroken cultural wisdom behind it. The question is what will stop the revolt? Those who are revolting would well know what they are up against. China has the largest army in the world. It has enormous financial resources due to its economic boom. It is also determined to keep Tibet within its fold. The Tibetans who seek independence cannot reasonably expect any other country to support their militancy and thereby risk Chinese displeasure.
An important lesson that comes from China is that economic development by itself does not quell ethnic discontent. China has launched major development schemes in Tibet. But this does not appear to have satisfied the Tibetans. The influx of Chinese to work on those mega projects in Tibet would probably exacerbate the problem by changing the demographic composition to the detriment of the original Tibetan inhabitants. The image of Tibetans on horseback charging a Chinese administered town in Tibet and replacing the Chinese flag with the Tibetan one is testimony to the power of nationalism.
The lesson from ethnic conflicts in different parts of the world is that military solutions and enforced solutions do not work. This is what the international community has been trying to impress on the government and LTTE, both of whom continue to believe in the military solution. Except in rare instances, the government had to make peace finally with the main militant organisation in cases of ethnic conflict. Sometimes this happened after many breakdowns of peace talks and ceasefires. Sri Lanka will not be an exception to this rule. The sooner that the Sri Lankan government decides to focus on a political solution, the sooner will peace come.
- Sri Lanka Guardian
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