dropped 63 per cent, from 101 in June 2007 to 37 in November 2007. _U.S. military deaths in Baghdad also decreased by 78 per cent, from 40 in June 2007 to nine in November 2007. (Power Points presentation made at a conference in New Delhi on December 13,2007 )
CHARACTERISTICS
- MIX OF OLD & NEW TERRORISM.OLD MEANING TARGETED KILLING OF SELECT INDIVIDUALS OR GROUPS. NEW MEANING MASS CASUALTY, MASS DESTRUCTION, MASS DIRUPTION.
- INDIFFERENCE TO IMPACT OF THEIR ACTIONS ON PUBLIC OPINION.
ROOT CAUSES NOT CONTEMPORARY. ARISE FROM THEIR PERCEPTION OF ISLAMIC HISTORY--- DESIRE TO RE-CREATE A CALIPHATE & RESTORE “HISTORIC” MUSLIM LANDS NOW WITH NON-MUSLIMS BACK TO THE UMMAH.- CONVENTIONAL ROOT CAUSES SUCH AS UMEMPLOYMENT, POVERTY, SOCIAL INJUSTICE ETC DO NOT APPLY. BIN LADEN DOES NOT EVEN TALK OF SUCH ISSUES. HE TALKS ONLY OF HISTORIC ISSUES SUCH AS WRONGS COMMITTED TO MUSLIMS OVER COURSE OF HISTORY. FOCUS ON MUSLIMS AS A COMMUNITY,ON ISLAM AS A RELIGION. NOT ON MUSLIMS AS INDIVIDUALS.
NOT OF CLASSICAL PATTERN. MANY OPERATIVES AFFLUENT OR WELL-TO-DO, EDUCATED & WELL-EMPLOYED TYPES.- NO DISTINCTION BETWEEN COMBATANTS AND NON-COMBATANTS OR BETWEEN MEN, WOMEN AND CHILDREN. JIHADI TERRORISTS HAVE KILLED MORE INNOCENT CIVILIANS THAN ALL OTHER TERRORISTS PUT TOGETHER.
- MAINLY USING EXPLOSIVES. PREPARED TO USE ANY MEANS OF MASS CASUALTIES, EVEN WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION (WMD).
- TACTICAL OBJECTIVES---MAINLY ACTS OF REPRISAL FOR PALESTINE, IRAQ, AFGHANISTAN & OTHER PERCEIVED WRONGS TO MUSLIMS.
- STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES---MASSIVE ECONOMIC DISRUPTION. TARGETS: TRANSPORT,TOURISM, MARITIME TRADE, OIL/GAS PRODUCTION & TRANSPORTATION, CRITICAL INFRACTRUCTURE.
- PREVIOUSLY WANTED TO TARGET ONLY OIL/GAS TRANSPORTATION, BUT NOT PRODUCTION FACILITIES LOCATED IN MUSLIM LANDS.
- LATEST INSTRUCTIONS ARE TO TARGET PRODUCTION FACILITIES TOO, EVEN IN MUSLIM NATIONS.
SELF-SUSTAINING MOMENTUM. ELIMINATION OF ICONIC LEADERS HAS HAD NO IMPACT ON MOMENTUM.RANK & FILE TERRORISM.- INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS CAPABLE OF AUTONOMOUS OPERATIONS EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF AN ICONIC LEADER.
FROM THE PRE-9/11 HIERARCHIAL SET-UP AL QAEDA HAS EVOLVED INTO A SET-UP OF CONCENTRIC CIRCLES, WITH EACH CIRCLE REPRESENTING A LOCAL INITIATIVE WITH THE OPERATIONAL COMMAND & CONTROL AT THE CENTRE AVAILABLE FOR GUIDANCE WHEN REQUIRED, BUT NOT OTHERWISE INTERVENING IMPORTANCE OF MARTYRDOM OPERATIONS (SUICIDE TERRORISM).
TWO-PRONGED OPERATIONS---MARTYRDOM & INTIFADA TACTICS FOR THOSE WHO ARE DISINCLINED TO COMMIT MARTYRDOM.- AFFILIATION TO ORGANISATIONS NOT OBLIGATORY.A MUSLIM IS FREE TO WAGE A JIHAD EITHER AS A MEMBER OF AN ORGANISATION OR AS AN INDIVIDUAL.
- THE JUNDULLAH (SOLDIERS OF ALLAH) PHENOMENON. INDIVIDUAL MUSLIMS NOT BELONGING TO ANY ORGANISATION SEEKING MARTYRDOM.ON THE INCREASE IN PAKISTAN. THERE WERE FOUR SUICIDE ATTACKS IN 2002,TWO IN 2003, FIVE IN 2004, TWO IN 2005, SIX IN 2006 AND 41 TILL OCTOBER 28,2007. TOTAL DEATHS 796---SOURCE NEWS OF OCTOBER 29,2007. MOST OF THE CASES OF 2006 & 2007 REMAIN UNDETECTED.SUSPECTED REASON: INDIVIDUALS WITH NO PREVIOUS HISTORY & WITH NO PREVIOUS ORGANISATIONAL AFFILIATION INVOLVED.
- SUNNI A-BOMB VS SHIA A-BOMB. SUPPORT FOR SUNNI A-BOMB. SILENCE ON IRAN’S RIGHT TO ACQUIRE AN A-BOMB.
- LOUD CONDEMNATION OF US INTERVENTION IN AFGHANISTAN & IRAQ. MUTED REACTIONS TO REPORTED US PLANS TO INTERVENE IN IRAN.
- BIN LADEN’S SO-CALLED INTERNATIONAL ISLAMIC FRONT IS, IN FACT, AN INTERNATIONAL WAHABI FRONT AGAINST CHRISTIANS, JEWISH PEOPLE, HINDUS & SHIAS AND THEIR MUSLIM STATE SUPPORTERS.
- MUSLIMS KILLING MUSLIMS. WAHABI SUNNIS KILLING SHIAS & SUNNI KURDS IN IRAQ. WAHABI SUNNIS KILLING SHIAS & BARELVI SUNNIS IN PAKISTAN. ANTI-US WAHABI SUNNIS KILLING PRO-US WAHABI SUNNIS IN AFGHANISTAN & WAHABI SUNNIS KILLING NON-WAHABI SUNNIS IN INDIA. ALL IN THE NAME OF GLOBAL JIHAD.
GROUND SITUATION
TENTATIVE SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT IN IRAQ. U.S. military deaths dropped 63 per cent, from 101 in June 2007 to 37 in November 2007. _U.S. military deaths in Baghdad also decreased by 78 per cent, from 40 in June 2007 to nine in November 2007. Deaths from improvised explosive devices (IEDs) continue to be the highest incident type, but dropped by 72 per cent since 2007 summer. Iraqi civilian deaths from war-related violence dropped 56 per cent over the past six months, from at least 1,640 in June to 718 in November,2007.
NO SIGNIFICANT SIGN OF IMPROVEMENT IN AFGHANISTAN. The Neo Taliban & its associates caused 346 civilian deaths while NATO and Afghan forces caused 337 civilian deaths till October-end. Military fatalities since October 7,2001:
United States 469 ,Britain 85 , Canada 73, Spain 23, Germany 26 ,Other nations 66 = TOTAL: 742
According to a UN study, the number of suicide bombings in Afghanistan increased from 17 in 2005 to 123 in 2006 and touched 103 till August 31, 2007.
A UNIQUE SITUATION --- A MIX OF INSURGENCY & TERRORISM, OF CONVENTIONAL & UNCONVENTIONAL MODUS OPERANDI (MO). NEO TALIBAN IN THE DRIVING SEAT & NOT AL QAEDA
WORRISOME DETERIORATION IN PAKISTAN. SOUTH & NORTH WAZIRISTAN IN THE FEDERALLY-ADMINISTERED TRIBAL AREAS (FATA) UNDER DE FACTO CONTROL OF A HOTCH-POTCH OF TERRORISTS---AL QAEDA, LOCAL TRIBAL GROUPS CLOSE TO NEO TALIBAN, UZBECK & PAKISTANI JIHADI GROUPS, INDIVIDUAL JUNDULLAHS. SPREADING TO AREAS OUTSIDE FATA.
SUICIDE TERRORISM– FOUR IN 2002, TWO IN 2003, FIVE IN 2004, TWO IN 2005, SIX IN 2006 & 41 IN 2007 TILL OCT-END. FATALITIES—796.
FOUR ATTACKS IN RAWALPINDI---TWO AGAINST ARMY AND TWO AGAINST ISI;ONE AGAINST AIR FORCE IN SARGODHA & ONE AGAINST US-TRAINED SPECIAL SERVICES GROUP IN TARBELA. MANY ATTACKS ON POLICE IN THE NORTH-WEST FRONTIER PROVINCE (NWFP).
IN INDIA, IMPROVEMENT IN JAMMU & KASHMIR.
- CIVILIAN FATALITIES IN J&K: 521 IN 2005,349 IN 2006 &162 TILL DEC.5,2007.
- SECURITY FORCES FATALITIES IN J&K—218 IN 2005,168 IN 2006 & 120 TILL DEC.5,2007.
- WORRISOME IN THE REST OF INDIA. THREE TERRORIST STRIKES IN 2005; THREE IN 2006; AND EIGHT IN 2007. OF 14 ATTACKS SINCE 2005, THREE WERE ON MUSLIM PLACES OF WORSHIP, THREE ON LEGAL COMMUNITY, TWO ON TRANSPORT, TWO ON HINDU HOLY PLACES,THREE IN PUBLIC PLACES & ONE ON A MEETING OF SCIENTISTS.ONE ATTACK WITH A GUN & REMAINING 13 WITH IEDS.ESTIMATED FATALITIES—300. MORE USE OF HAND-HELD WEAPONS IN J&K. MORE USE OF IEDS IN REST OF INDIA.
- OPERATIONAL CONTROL IS STILL DONE BY PAKISTAN’S ISI, BUT THE COMMAND & CONTROL INCREASINGLY OPERATES FROM BANGLADESH AFTER PERVEZ MUSHARRAF ASSURED INDIA IN JANUARY,2004, THAT HE WOULD NOT ALLOW ANY TERRITORY UNDER PAK CONTROL TO BE USED BY ANTI-INDIA TERRORISTS.ISI CONTINUES TO USE PRO-AL QAEDA TERRORISTS AGAINST INDIA AND HELP NEO TALIBAN AGAINST AFGHANISTAN.
- REST OF THE WORLD---SPORADIC AS EVER, BUT LETHAL AS EVER. NEW JIHADI SPOTS: SOMALIA & ALGERIA.NEW LIKELY DANGER SPOTS---GERMANY, DENMARK, FRANCE & CANADA.
- LARGER RESERVOIR OF OPERATIVES THAN PRE-9/11--- ARABS, PAKISTANIS IN PAKISTAN & DIASPORA, UZBECKS & INDIAN MUSLIMS.
PAKISTAN:LOOKING TO FUTURE
SENIOR ARMY LEADERSHIP SEES NO ALTERNATIVE TO MUSHARRAF IN THE DRIVING SEAT OF NATIONAL SECURITY.
HIS OPERATIONAL MANOEUVRABILITY DILUTED BY HIS MAKING GEN.ASHFAQ PERVEZ KIYANI AS THE CHIEF OF THE ARMY STAFF (COAS). WHEN MUSHARRAF CHAIRED CORPS COMMANDERS MEETINGS AS COAS, HIS OFFICERS AVOIDED OPENLY VOICING THEIR RESERVATIONS OVER HIS POLICIES. THEY WILL BE LESS INHIBITED IN VOICING THEIR RESERVATIONS IN MEETINGS CHAIRED BY KIYANI. HE HAS TO TAKE THEM INTO CONSIDERATION.
UPSURGE IN TRIBAL ANGER AFTER COMMANDO ACTION IN ISLAMABAD’S LAL MASJID CONTINUES.INSTABILITY IN PASHTUN BELT WILL CONTINUE IN SHORT & MEDIUM TERMS.
PSURGE IN TERRORISM WILL CONTINUE. TRIBAL AREAS WILL REMAIN UNGOVERNABLE. NON-TRIBAL AREAS WILL KEEP BLEEDING INTERMITTENTLY. THIS STATE OF AFFAIRS WILL CONTINUE TILL THE JIHADI SANCTUARIES & TRAINING INFRASTRUCTURE IN PAK TERRITORY ARE EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATED – WHETHER THEY ARE DIRECTED AGAINST INDIA, AFGHANISTAN OR US.
NO END TO JIHADI TERRORISM ORIGINATING FROM PAK TERRITORY SO LONG AS US KEEPS GIVING MUSHARRAF CAUSE FOR BELIEF THAT THE US WILL CLOSE ITS EYES TO HIS JIHADI TERRORISM AGAINST INDIA PROVIDED HE HELPS IN PREVENTING ANOTHER 9/11 IN US TERRITORY.
NIGHTMARE OVER PAK NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND ROGUE NUCLEAR SCIENTISTS WILL CONTINUE HAUNTING US SO LONG AS JIHADIS CONTINUE TO FLOURISH IN PAKISTANI TERRITORY.IF THERE IS ANOTHER 9/11 IN THE US AND IF IT INVOLVES THE USE OF WMD, IT WOULD HAVE ORIGINATED FROM PAKISTANI TERRITORY.
COUNTER-TERRORISM INADEQUACIES
- ACTION AGAINST FUNDING LARGELY FOCUSSED ON FORMAL CHANNELS SUCH AS BANKING. INFORMAL CHANNELS SUCH AS HAWALA, USE OF BUSINESS COMPANIES & STOCK MARKETS ETC NOT EFFECTIVELY ADDRESSED.
- INEFFECTIVE NARCOTICS CONTROL.
- INEFFECTIVE ACTION AGAINST SANCTUARIES & TRAINING INFRASTRUCTURES IN PAKISTAN & BANGLADESH.
- INEFFECTIVE PSYWAR. TERRORISTS MAKE BETTER USE OF SOFT POWER AGAINST STATE ACTORS THAN VICE VERSA.
- INTERNATIONAL CO-OPERATION CONFINED TO INTELLIGENCE-SHARING. VERY LITTLE JOINT OPERATIONS. RELUCTANCE TO SHARE APPROPRIATE TECHNOLOGIES.
AL QAEDA & INDIA
AL QAEDA AS AN ARAB ORGANISATION HAS NOT SO FAR OPERATED IN INDIA.
BUT FOUR OF THE FIVE PAKISTANI MEMBERS OF BIN LADEN’S INTERNATIONAL ISLAMIC FRONT (IIF) HAVE BEEN ACTIVE IN INDIA. THESE ARE THE HARKAT-UL-MUJAHIDEEN (HUM), THE HARKAT-UL-JIHAD-AL ISLAMI (HUJI), THE LASHKAR-E-TOIBA (LET) AND THE JAISH-E-MOHAMMASD (JEM). THE HUM IS A FOUNDING MEMBER OF THE IIF SINCE 1998. THE OTHERS JOINED SUBSEQUENTLY. THE ONLY PAKISTANI ORGANISATION NOT ACTIVE IN INDIA IS THE ANTI-SHIA LASHKAR-E-JHANGVI (LEJ).
SINCE APRIL,2006, AL QAEDA HAS BEEN PROJECTING THE GLOBAL JIHAD AS DIRECTED AGAINST THE CHRISTIANS, THE JEWISH PEOPLE & THE HINDUS.
BEFORE APRIL,2006, IT USED TO PROJECT IT AS DIRECTED AGAINST THE CHRISTIANS & THE JEWISH PEOPLE ONLY.
SINCE 2002, THERE HAS BEEN A FLOW OF INDIAN MUSLIM VOLUNTEERS FROM INDIA & THE GULF TO THE FOUR PAKISTANI ORGANISATIONS MENTIONED ABOVE.
AL QAEDA HAD DEFINITELY USED ONE INDIAN-ORIGIN MUSLIM IN THE UK FOR INTELLIGENCE-COLLECTION & TARGET SELECTION IN THE US. ONE OTHER INDIAN MUSLIM IN THE UK WAS SUSPECTED OF ASSOCIATION WITH THE LONDON BOMBERS OF JULY,2005. THE THIRD INDIAN MUSLIM INVOLVED IN THE GLASGOW INCIDENT OF JUNE,2007, WAS ACTING INDIVIDUALLY. NO EVIDENCE OF ORGANISATIONAL AFFILIATION.
KHALID SHEIKH MOHAMMAD, WHO IS IN US CUSTODY, REPORTEDLY TOLD US INTERROGATORS THAT AL QAEDA WANTED TO STRIKE THE ISRAELI EMBASSY IN NEW DELHI, BUT COULD NOT.
IT IS ASSESSED THAT AL QAEDA WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE OPERATIONS AGAINST INDIAN TARGETS TO ITS PAKISTANI ASSOCIATES, BUT WILL KEEP LOOKING FOR AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRIKE AT US & ISRAELI TARGETS IN INDIA.
INDIA: DIFFICULTIES
WIDE GEOGRAPHIC SPREAD. INVOLVES CO-ORDINATION AMONG MANY STATES.
GYPSY-LIKE TERRORISM--- KEEP THEIR AREA OF OPERATIONS SHIFTING FROM STATE TO STATE.
UNESTIMATED, BUT LARGE POPULATION OF ILLEGAL MIGRANTS FROM BANGLADESH ALL OVER THE COUNTRY. THEY PROVIDE THE LOGISTICS SUPPORT.
RELUCTANCE OF POLITICAL LEADERSHIP TO GIVE ADDITIONAL POWERS TO THE POLICE ON PAR WITH THOSE IN THE WEST.
RELUCTANCE TO ACT AGAINST ILLEGAL BANGLADESHI MIGRANTS.
GENERAL OBSERVATIONS
CONVENTIONAL ROOT CAUSES & HEARTS & MINDS APPROACHES DO NOT APPLY TO JIHADI TERRORISM SINCE ITS SO-CALLED GRIEVANCES ARE NOT CONTEMPORARY. IT HAS TO BE EFFECTIVELY NEUTRALISED THROUGH SECURITY MEASURES—DEFENSIVE & OFFENSIVE.
OVER-MILITARISED US COUNTER-TERRORISM METHODS, WITH DISPROPORTIONATE USE OF FORCE THROUGH AIR & ARTILLERY STRIKES ADDING TO MUSLIM ANGER & DRIVING MORE MUSLIMS INTO THE WAITING ARMS OF AL QAEDA. NEED FOR MID-COURSE CORRECTIONS. INDIA’S NON-MILITARY APPROACH WORTHY OF EMULATION.
INDIAN MODEL---POLICE, THE WEAPON OF FIRST RESORT IN COUNTER-TERRORISM & ARMY THE WEAPON OF FIRST RESORT IN COUNTER-INFILTRATION IN BORDER AREAS.
PAKISTAN HAS BEEN THE MOST IMPORTANT BREEDING GROUND OF INTERNATIONAL JIHADI TERRORISM. BANGLADESH NEXT. THE ARMIES IN BOTH COUNTRIES HAVE NOT SINCERELY ADDRESSED THIS MENACE. THERE IS A NEED FOR A NEW LEADERSHIP IN BOTH COUNTRIES, WHICH WILL TACKLE THE MENACE SINCERELY & EFFECTIVELY.
INTELLIGENCE HAS IMPROVED, BUT STILL FACING DIFFICULTIES IN PENETRATING NON-STATE ACTORS.
PHYSICAL SECURITY HAS IMPROVED BUT STILL FACING DIFFICULTIES AGAINST SUICIDE TERRORISM & ATTACKS ON SOFT TARGETS.
NO BREAKTHROUGH IN DEVELOPING TECHNOLOGIES TO DETECT SUICIDE BOMBERS FROM A DISTANCE.
DRAMATIC DETERIORATION IN POLICE MORALE IN PAKISTAN UNDER MUSHARRAF.
A THOUGHT FOR THE ROAD
US CAUGHT IN A VICIOUS CIRCLE IN PAKISTAN. THE MORE IT SUPPORTS MUSHARRAF, THE MORE THE ANTI-MUSHARRAF, ANTI-US ANGER. THE MORE THE ANTI-MUSHARRAF, ANTI-US ANGER, THE MORE THE JIHADI TERRORISM. THE MORE THE JIHADI TERRORISM,THE MORE THE DANGERS OF PAK NUCLEAR ARSENAL FALLING INTO THE HANDS OF JIHADI TERRORISTS. THE MORE THE DANGERS OF THE PAK NUCLEAR ARSENAL FALLING INTO THE HANDS OF JIHADI TERRORISTS, THE MORE THE US SUPPORT TO MUSHARRAF. SO LONG AS THE US DOES NOT GET OUT OF THIS VICIOUS CIRCLE, ITS TROOPS WILL CONTINUE BLEEDING IN THIS REGION. NO HOME BEFORE X’MAS FOR THEM. NOT FOR THIS X’MAS. NOT FOR MANY X’MASES FOR YEARS TO COME.
( B.Raman is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
 U.S. military deaths dropped 63 per cent, from 101 in June 2007 to 37 in November 2007. _U.S. m...){kind=link}
Post a Comment