By: Alok Bansal (November, 04, New Delhi, Sri Lanka Guardian) The recent strike by the Sri Lankan Air Force that has led to the killing of SP Thamilchelvan, the head of the Political Wing of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) along with five other LTTE cadres, does not augur well for the island nation.
Thamilchelvan, widely believed to have been Prabhakaran’s deputy, was the visible face of the LTTE ever since the death of its ideologue Anton Balasingham and had been interacting with foreign interlocutors and journalists. He represented the LTTE during the last round of peace talks in Geneva in October 2006. His killing indicates that the Sri Lankan Air Force has succeeded in zeroing in on the residential complex of the LTTE leadership near Kilinochchi and this poses a grave threat to the LTTE supremo V Prabhakaran.
The Sri Lankan Defence Minister, who is the brother of President Mahinda Rajapaksha, has pledged to eliminate not just Prabhakaran but also all the remaining Tiger leaders. The attack will definitely boost the morale of his security forces, especially the Air Force, which suffered a serious setback when a squad of 21 Black Tigers (suicide terrorists), in conjunction with two LTTE aircraft, attacked the Sri Lankan Air Force base at Anuradhapura and destroyed at least eight aircraft. By the strike on the LTTE headquarters, the Sri Lankan Air Force has redeemed its honour and has shown that its combat potential is intact.
However, what is much more significant is the fact that the strike clearly indicates that the current political dispensation in Sri Lanka, despite its postulations to the contrary, believes that it can militarily resolve the decades old ethnic strife. The reports emanating from Colombo indicate that the government, having ‘liberated’ the East from the LTTE, plans to launch an offensive in the North as part of the ultimate military solution.
After the liberation of the East, the Sri Lankan security forces appear to be confident of military victory and are pressurising the government to go in for the military option. They feel that they have better equipment and that the LTTE has been weakened by the defection of ‘Colonel’ Karuna and his supporters. However, it must be appreciated that when cornered, the LTTE will attack and being militarily weak to take on the security forces in a conventional war, it will resort to large-scale terrorist attacks in other parts of Sri Lanka. It has the ultimate weapon of a terrorist - ‘the suicide bomber’ - and having introduced it to the region, it has no dearth of them as was indicated by the attack in Anuradhapura.
The next few days are likely to be eventful as the LTTE will try its best to avenge Thamilchelvan’s loss. These attacks could really jolt the investor confidence and derail the economy of Sri Lanka. As the LTTE steps up its terrorist activities, the possibility of ethnic riots and further polarisation of the two communities cannot be ruled out.
This is not to suggest that the Sri Lankan State must yield to LTTE threats but to highlight that seeking a military solution without attempting to redress the genuine grievances of the Tamils can only exacerbate the threat of terrorism. Thamilchelvan’s death has drastically reduced the chances of any negotiated settlement to the ethnic strife that has plagued Sri Lanka since 1983 and claimed over 70000 lives.
From India’s point of view, the current developments, which could even lead to Prabhakaran’s elimination, do not augur well. India backs a unified Sri Lanka, where legitimate Tamil aspirations are incorporated within the constitutional framework. It is however quite clear that but for the pressure exerted by the LTTE, the Sri Lankan government and the Sinhalese youth will not even agree to discuss legitimate Tamil demands. To that extent, the decimation of the LTTE, without any constitutional guarantees for Tamils, could be catastrophic.
The Tamil population in India identifies itself with Sri Lankan Tamils and as the conflict aggravates, there may be large-scale refugee influx in Tamil Nadu. India, as an emerging regional power, cannot just sit back and watch as its neighbourhood is engulfed in anarchy. It has to fulfil its obligations towards its neighbours, who look up to it to maintain peace and order in this part of the world.
India, in conjunction with the international community, must impress upon the Sri Lankan government the futility of pursuing a military solution. Instead, they must be persuaded to go in for a negotiated solution underwritten by the international community which will provide succour to the Tamil population in the North East. The impending humanitarian crisis must be averted at all cost. It must attempt to bring the two parties closer so as to strive for a solution.
The threat of curbing international aid for the development programme in Sri Lanka and strict measures like curbing the LTTE’s illegal activities will definitely dissuade the parties in due course from deviating from the peace process. The donor community has a valid stake to ensure that peace returns to Sri Lanka and that North East Sri Lanka returns to the path of economic development.
It must be appreciated that the ongoing ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka can only be resolved by reasonable devolution of power in a manner acceptable to minorities like Tamils and Muslims and supported by all sections of the Sinhalese community. The Sri Lankan government must therefore make efforts to amend the constitution so as to incorporate the devolution of powers to the Tamils. The government, especially the armed forces, must also be made more representative by incorporating Tamils. It must encourage voices of moderates amongst Tamils as part of its efforts to find solution to the conflict.
The elimination of the LTTE leadership without any reasonable devolution package to assuage the Tamil grievances might win some brownie points for the Sri Lankan security forces in the short term, but could prove catastrophic in the long-term for the security of not only Sri Lanka but also the entire region. (From - Sify)
Thamilchelvan, widely believed to have been Prabhakaran’s deputy, was the visible face of the LTTE ever since the death of its ideologue Anton Balasingham and had been interacting with foreign interlocutors and journalists. He represented the LTTE during the last round of peace talks in Geneva in October 2006. His killing indicates that the Sri Lankan Air Force has succeeded in zeroing in on the residential complex of the LTTE leadership near Kilinochchi and this poses a grave threat to the LTTE supremo V Prabhakaran.
The Sri Lankan Defence Minister, who is the brother of President Mahinda Rajapaksha, has pledged to eliminate not just Prabhakaran but also all the remaining Tiger leaders. The attack will definitely boost the morale of his security forces, especially the Air Force, which suffered a serious setback when a squad of 21 Black Tigers (suicide terrorists), in conjunction with two LTTE aircraft, attacked the Sri Lankan Air Force base at Anuradhapura and destroyed at least eight aircraft. By the strike on the LTTE headquarters, the Sri Lankan Air Force has redeemed its honour and has shown that its combat potential is intact.
However, what is much more significant is the fact that the strike clearly indicates that the current political dispensation in Sri Lanka, despite its postulations to the contrary, believes that it can militarily resolve the decades old ethnic strife. The reports emanating from Colombo indicate that the government, having ‘liberated’ the East from the LTTE, plans to launch an offensive in the North as part of the ultimate military solution.
After the liberation of the East, the Sri Lankan security forces appear to be confident of military victory and are pressurising the government to go in for the military option. They feel that they have better equipment and that the LTTE has been weakened by the defection of ‘Colonel’ Karuna and his supporters. However, it must be appreciated that when cornered, the LTTE will attack and being militarily weak to take on the security forces in a conventional war, it will resort to large-scale terrorist attacks in other parts of Sri Lanka. It has the ultimate weapon of a terrorist - ‘the suicide bomber’ - and having introduced it to the region, it has no dearth of them as was indicated by the attack in Anuradhapura.
The next few days are likely to be eventful as the LTTE will try its best to avenge Thamilchelvan’s loss. These attacks could really jolt the investor confidence and derail the economy of Sri Lanka. As the LTTE steps up its terrorist activities, the possibility of ethnic riots and further polarisation of the two communities cannot be ruled out.
This is not to suggest that the Sri Lankan State must yield to LTTE threats but to highlight that seeking a military solution without attempting to redress the genuine grievances of the Tamils can only exacerbate the threat of terrorism. Thamilchelvan’s death has drastically reduced the chances of any negotiated settlement to the ethnic strife that has plagued Sri Lanka since 1983 and claimed over 70000 lives.
From India’s point of view, the current developments, which could even lead to Prabhakaran’s elimination, do not augur well. India backs a unified Sri Lanka, where legitimate Tamil aspirations are incorporated within the constitutional framework. It is however quite clear that but for the pressure exerted by the LTTE, the Sri Lankan government and the Sinhalese youth will not even agree to discuss legitimate Tamil demands. To that extent, the decimation of the LTTE, without any constitutional guarantees for Tamils, could be catastrophic.
The Tamil population in India identifies itself with Sri Lankan Tamils and as the conflict aggravates, there may be large-scale refugee influx in Tamil Nadu. India, as an emerging regional power, cannot just sit back and watch as its neighbourhood is engulfed in anarchy. It has to fulfil its obligations towards its neighbours, who look up to it to maintain peace and order in this part of the world.
India, in conjunction with the international community, must impress upon the Sri Lankan government the futility of pursuing a military solution. Instead, they must be persuaded to go in for a negotiated solution underwritten by the international community which will provide succour to the Tamil population in the North East. The impending humanitarian crisis must be averted at all cost. It must attempt to bring the two parties closer so as to strive for a solution.
The threat of curbing international aid for the development programme in Sri Lanka and strict measures like curbing the LTTE’s illegal activities will definitely dissuade the parties in due course from deviating from the peace process. The donor community has a valid stake to ensure that peace returns to Sri Lanka and that North East Sri Lanka returns to the path of economic development.
It must be appreciated that the ongoing ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka can only be resolved by reasonable devolution of power in a manner acceptable to minorities like Tamils and Muslims and supported by all sections of the Sinhalese community. The Sri Lankan government must therefore make efforts to amend the constitution so as to incorporate the devolution of powers to the Tamils. The government, especially the armed forces, must also be made more representative by incorporating Tamils. It must encourage voices of moderates amongst Tamils as part of its efforts to find solution to the conflict.
The elimination of the LTTE leadership without any reasonable devolution package to assuage the Tamil grievances might win some brownie points for the Sri Lankan security forces in the short term, but could prove catastrophic in the long-term for the security of not only Sri Lanka but also the entire region. (From - Sify)
Alok Bansal is a security analyst currently working as research fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), one of the oldest and largest Indian think tanks working on security issues. He has published books on 'Pakistan Occupied Kashmir.' His book on Balochistan is currently under publication. 
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