Strategic Vision

By: Defencewire

"Presence of mind . . . is nothing but an increased capacity of dealing with the unexpected."- Clausewitz

(October,23,Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) The attack on the Anuradhapura Airbase once again brings us back to the stark realities of war. Unforeseen events in war will surprise even the most season generals and policy makers. Hence, this attack should be a wakeup call to both military thinkers and policy makers and an opportune time to reflect on a strategic vision.

Sun Tzu one of the greatest military strategists warned his political masters " know your enemy and know your self" Even centuries after Sun Tzu this maxim is still the primary principal for all who go to war. The combined air and ground offensive by the "black tigers" has several tactical purposes and warrants a careful study before policy makers embark on any rash moves.
This attack by the LTTE invites the GOSL to make several tactical and strategic blunders, which could be detrimental to the overall strategic military thinking that has produced significant results. This attack is essentially an attack behind enemy lines for the LTTE and is a deep penetration attack that is aimed at destabilizing the current offensive mindset of the military to readjust the current military positions and deployment. After three decades of vacillating between different conventional warfare tactics the armed forces have now adjusted to mobile Special Forces warfare tactics with close air support. This strategy produced exceptional results during the last few years for the military and the LTTE wants a reversal to semi-conventional warfare so that they have better access to information and fixed targets to take aim at. Therefore, this attack should not be a catalyst to change the way we have been conducting the war. It would be utterly irresponsible for the policy makers to change course and fight a semi conventional war based on a political agenda right now. The lesson is " Stay the Course"

The second tactical blunder that the LTTE has invited the GOSL to make is the needless propaganda bombing raids in LTTE controlled areas. Arial bombing undoubtedly has its pros and cons. However, insight of the LTTE using human shields it becomes impossible to distinguish between civilian and military targets and civilians will be targeted. The implication of this is far reaching in terms of the current pressure that is mounting on the GOSL about humanitarian concerns in the North and the East. Last week UN issued a strongly worded confidential note to the government and warned that the humanitarian situation in Sri Lanka continues to deteriorate with possible devastating consequences." Any offensive against the LTTE in northern Sri Lanka would have major humanitarian consequences, including displacement of up to 400,000 civilians," This comes in the backdrop of the US ambassador and the EU raising humanitarian concerns of the civilian population in the North and the East. GOSL does not operate in a vacuum and we cannot defy the international community this is the reality of this war for all developing countries. It is better that the GOSL realizes this now whether they like it or not and play within these constraints. The aim of a secessionist insurgency is to show that the government cannot govern and protect its people but the government has the herculean task of governing and protecting the population with internal and external constraints. This is the reality and GOSL must deal with it.

The third strategic blunder that the LTTE wants the GOSL to make is relying on statistics and figures of success that has been circulating in policy circles last week. Measuring success is important but it should not be the deciding factor in guiding policy in counterinsurgency efforts.

Success in counterinsurgency efforts should not be measured by the amount of physical infrastructure destroyed but by the number of hearts and minds won. This is essentially a political effort. Moreover, it is a HUMIT effort. All military policy makers should take this seriously, in their policy planning. The attack on the Anuradhapura base was carried out with small arms and light weapons. It is impossible to destroy such weapons through offensive military action. The only way to neutralize this is to gather information through the population and through informants on the ground. GOSL’s current emphasis on territory captured and physical infrastructure destroyed should not be allowed to distract the overall strategic planning and throw away the strategic advantage that the military possess.

In war, more than anywhere else things do not turn out as we expect. In times of war when unforeseen events take place it takes courage, determination and a strategic vision to stay the course and not to succumb to the tactical ploys of the enemy.