Findings and Observations

By:Defencewire

Main Observations

(October,24,Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) The attack has all the hall-marks of the LTTE Leader's thinking. Eye for Eye, Assets for Assets. LTTE's sensitive spots have been touched by the Military. They were the floating warehouses. They can counter or replenish the loss of 10-15 cadres a day. This means they are not particularly sensitive to minor losses of men. But they cannot lose their supplies in such short succession. After all we are an island, remember?

The lost floating warehouses has hurt them much! The Sri Lanka Navy could be the LTTE's next target. Large warships particularly vulnerable.

The LTTE has a vast network of intelligence operatives in government areas, including Anuradhapura (one might say, of course!) but who has raised this issue so far and actually dealt with it? This could include safe houses, weapons smuggling etc. Was there an Army Intelligence Officer for Anuradhapura. I do not think so. Some Police and SLAF officers are in on the game. No planners considered Anuradhapura unsafe. But why? Isn't it a strategic location, like Vavuniya or Mannar, or even more?

Scenario-building: Worst-case Scenario

The LTTE has proven itself as a capable unconventional military force. adversely affected morale of the Tamil Diaspora will reverse. LTTE morale, fundraising, money-laundering, recruitment etc. will increase. LTTE will recover lost assets, replenish stocks and prepare for semi-conventional warfare. It will take own sweet time for next unconventional attack. Weakest point will be assessed/being assessed right now. Meanwhile Military Operations by Security Forces will be handicapped or 'intelligence blind' without aerial surveillance. No air support for ground troops. Once LTTE replenishes stocks and launches semi conventional war, there won't be any SLAF contribution on the ground. Unless new UAVs and Beachcraft procured, Kfir and Mig-27s are white elephants. Takeover of security coordination by Army, deployment of elite troops for missions other than those originally assigned for will put enormous strains on the Army's human resources.

Govt will shift cost of replenishing lost assets on the people. Economic burden on people will increase. Government will become unpopular with the people. Political pressure on government will also increase due to outbidding and outflanking by UNP. Government's attention will be diverted on two fronts. One will be military, the other Political. The support-base for a military solution will be strong but silent and calculating on the government's ability to deliver such. The pro-peace elements will have a field day!

Past Experiences

Joint Operations Command, Fort Railway Station etc bombed. LTTE Oyatha Alikal reached Jaffna City-limits. terrotory gained by Riviresa reversed. Agnikeela conventional operation results in severe losses. Katunayake Airbase and civilian airport attacked. Almost the entire fighter jet squadron destroyed. Insurance surcharge imposed by Lloyd's of London. Government forced to negotiate from a position of relative weakness in 2002 by reciprocating to LTTE's unilaterally declared Cease-Fire. Military debacles where over 1000 soldiers have been killed (Mullaithivu, Elephant Pass, Kilinochchi etc). One President killed, one maimed for life. Navy Commander killed, Army's 3rd Highest Ranker killed, Generals (Kobbekaduwa etc) killed. Foreign Minister and other important Ministers killed.

Recent Experiences

Army changes tactics. The Eastern Province 'liberated'. Navy destroys 11 LTTE floating ware-houses.

A Game of Choice

Which of the following do we choose as an option?

1. Neither party can win this war
2. Government will win eventually
3. LTTE will establish Eelam eventually

Given the recent and past events, a reasonable assumption would be that neither party will win the war. The other two options are what you make of them. For example, if a party wants to make the second choice 'Government will win eventually' a reality, we must make that happen. Similarly if the LTTE wants to establish Eelam, they too must make that happen. They both will use the same tactics; a mixture between military power and political power. They both will use the international community to legitimize its cause etc.

Conclusion

Ultimately, it all brews down to one issue. Its true that this battle has been won by LTTE. The Security Forces have won their battles too. But the bottom line is who will win the war will rely on who really needs to win?