If Benazir and Nawaz were politically mature, they would have chosen to remain in exile till the forthcoming elections were over, help their parties improve their performance from exile and then return in triumph after their parties had won the elections.Thus far and no further.
That is the message that Pakistan's President General Pervez Musharraf has sought to convey to Pakistan's Supreme Court and its independent Chief Justice Iftikar Mohammad Chaudhry by his action of September 10, 2007, in arresting and deporting to Saudi Arabia, Mr.Nawaz Sharif, whom the Army overthrew as the Prime Minister in October, 1999, shortly after his arrival in Islamabad from London.
Musharraf has taken this action in total disregard of the recent judgement of the Supreme Court upholding the right of Mr. Nawaz to return to his country. Possible fear of another embarrassing conflict with the judiciary has not deterred him from taking this action. He is now prepared to put the judiciary in its place, even if he has to impose a state of emergency or proclaim the Martial Law for this purpose.
It is significant that as the drama over Nawaz Sharif continued for over two hours after his arrival and that even as private Pakistani TV channels were speculating that deportation to Saudi Arabia was one of the options being considered by Musharraf, the Supreme Court did not consider it necessary to intervene with an anticipatory order prohibiting his deportation.
In some of the recent comments of the reinstated Chief Justice while hearing arguments on various petitions relating to the proposed re-election of Musharraf, there were indicators that the Chief Justice was worried over the possibility of a constitutional paralysis should the court come in the way of Musharraf's getting himself re-elected as the President by the outgoing National Assembly even while holding the office of the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS).
Whether these indicators prove to be correct or not, Musharraf is determined that the judiciary should not be allowed to come in the way of his re-election by insisting that he should resign as the COAS. Musharraf is right when he says that he was given special dispensation by the elected National Assembly in 2003 to continue to hold the office of the COAS and that, therefore, he would not be committing any illegality by getting himself re-elected under this law. Neither the judiciary nor the political parties tried to have the unconstitutionality of this law established for four years. The political parties kept their campaign against this law confined to the streets instead of trying to get a favourable judgement from the judiciary. Now to challenge Musharraf's re-election under this law, which continues to be on the statute book, eight weeks before Musharraf's term is due to expire could create a constitutional deadlock and add to political instability in the country.
Musharraf is hoping that his determined action against Nawaz Sharif and fears of a constitutional crisis would induce second thoughts in the judiciary about the wisdom of interfering in the electoral process not on grounds of irregularity in procedure, but on grounds of the unconstitutionality of a law passed four years ago. If the judiciary continues to question his actions in constitutional matters, he is prepared to proclaim an Emergency or the Martial Law. The indications from reliable sources in Islamabad are that he continues to enjoy the support of the senior army officers in this regard.
While one has to await the judiciary's response to Musharraf's defiance of its order on Nawaz Sharif, it is apparent that the political situation in Pakistan is becoming murkier and murkier. All the three dramatis personae----Musharraf, Benazir and Nawaz--- have conducted themselves with political immaturity and lack of finesse. By encouraging moves for a so-called political deal with Benazir,Musharraf has created pockets of resentment in the Pakistan Muslim League (Qaide Azam) created by him in 2002. This could affect the support for him in his expected bid to get re-elected by the outgoing National Assembly in which they are in a majority. He has also created concerns in the minds of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement of Mr. Altaf Hussain, which stood by him during his earlier confrontation with the judiciary.
By showing an over-anxiety for a deal with the Army, which was responsible for the death of her father and brother Shah Nawaz Bhutto, Benazir has re-confirmed her image as a political opportunist and undependable political ally.
By the impulsive manner in which he decided to return to Pakistan after the Supreme Court order without carefully considering the implications, Nawaz has shown that he is the same old Nawaz of October, 1999, whose impulsive and petulant action in dismissing Musharraf while he was mid-air between Colombo and Karachi and preventing his plane from landing in Karachi led to his overthrow by the Army.
Nawaz took his decision to return without taking into account the fact that the US feels uncomfortable with him and that Saudi Arabia is worried that the weakening of Musharraf might play into the hands of Al Qaeda, which is determined to have the Saudi monarchy overthrown. Whether Musharraf has been sincere in acting against Al Qaeda or not, the US and Saudi Arabia are convinced that his continuance in power is necessary to keep Al Qaeda under control, even if one is not able to neutralise it now.
The vigorous manner in which Saudi Arabia intervened in the drama by disclosing details of the commitment made by Nawaz in 2000 to keep away from Pakistan for 10 years in return for his freedom has once again revived his image as a political coward.
If Benazir and Nawaz were politically mature, they would have chosen to remain in exile till the forthcoming elections were over, help their parties improve their performance from exile and then return in triumph after their parties had won the elections. If their victory in the elections was decisive, even Saudi Arabia and the US would have found it difficult to intervene against them.
Pakistan is in for a period of enhanced political instability at a time when its Army is unable to establish its writ in the tribal areas. This should be a matter of concern for the international community. The present messy situation might have been avoided if the US had really wanted to encourage a return to genuine democracy in Pakistan. It wants continued military rule with a democratic facade----with Benazir providing the facade and Musharraf exercising the real power. This is unlikely to work. Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan will continue to haunt the US policy-makers for months to come.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
That is the message that Pakistan's President General Pervez Musharraf has sought to convey to Pakistan's Supreme Court and its independent Chief Justice Iftikar Mohammad Chaudhry by his action of September 10, 2007, in arresting and deporting to Saudi Arabia, Mr.Nawaz Sharif, whom the Army overthrew as the Prime Minister in October, 1999, shortly after his arrival in Islamabad from London.
Musharraf has taken this action in total disregard of the recent judgement of the Supreme Court upholding the right of Mr. Nawaz to return to his country. Possible fear of another embarrassing conflict with the judiciary has not deterred him from taking this action. He is now prepared to put the judiciary in its place, even if he has to impose a state of emergency or proclaim the Martial Law for this purpose.
It is significant that as the drama over Nawaz Sharif continued for over two hours after his arrival and that even as private Pakistani TV channels were speculating that deportation to Saudi Arabia was one of the options being considered by Musharraf, the Supreme Court did not consider it necessary to intervene with an anticipatory order prohibiting his deportation.
In some of the recent comments of the reinstated Chief Justice while hearing arguments on various petitions relating to the proposed re-election of Musharraf, there were indicators that the Chief Justice was worried over the possibility of a constitutional paralysis should the court come in the way of Musharraf's getting himself re-elected as the President by the outgoing National Assembly even while holding the office of the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS).
Whether these indicators prove to be correct or not, Musharraf is determined that the judiciary should not be allowed to come in the way of his re-election by insisting that he should resign as the COAS. Musharraf is right when he says that he was given special dispensation by the elected National Assembly in 2003 to continue to hold the office of the COAS and that, therefore, he would not be committing any illegality by getting himself re-elected under this law. Neither the judiciary nor the political parties tried to have the unconstitutionality of this law established for four years. The political parties kept their campaign against this law confined to the streets instead of trying to get a favourable judgement from the judiciary. Now to challenge Musharraf's re-election under this law, which continues to be on the statute book, eight weeks before Musharraf's term is due to expire could create a constitutional deadlock and add to political instability in the country.
Musharraf is hoping that his determined action against Nawaz Sharif and fears of a constitutional crisis would induce second thoughts in the judiciary about the wisdom of interfering in the electoral process not on grounds of irregularity in procedure, but on grounds of the unconstitutionality of a law passed four years ago. If the judiciary continues to question his actions in constitutional matters, he is prepared to proclaim an Emergency or the Martial Law. The indications from reliable sources in Islamabad are that he continues to enjoy the support of the senior army officers in this regard.
While one has to await the judiciary's response to Musharraf's defiance of its order on Nawaz Sharif, it is apparent that the political situation in Pakistan is becoming murkier and murkier. All the three dramatis personae----Musharraf, Benazir and Nawaz--- have conducted themselves with political immaturity and lack of finesse. By encouraging moves for a so-called political deal with Benazir,Musharraf has created pockets of resentment in the Pakistan Muslim League (Qaide Azam) created by him in 2002. This could affect the support for him in his expected bid to get re-elected by the outgoing National Assembly in which they are in a majority. He has also created concerns in the minds of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement of Mr. Altaf Hussain, which stood by him during his earlier confrontation with the judiciary.
By showing an over-anxiety for a deal with the Army, which was responsible for the death of her father and brother Shah Nawaz Bhutto, Benazir has re-confirmed her image as a political opportunist and undependable political ally.
By the impulsive manner in which he decided to return to Pakistan after the Supreme Court order without carefully considering the implications, Nawaz has shown that he is the same old Nawaz of October, 1999, whose impulsive and petulant action in dismissing Musharraf while he was mid-air between Colombo and Karachi and preventing his plane from landing in Karachi led to his overthrow by the Army.
Nawaz took his decision to return without taking into account the fact that the US feels uncomfortable with him and that Saudi Arabia is worried that the weakening of Musharraf might play into the hands of Al Qaeda, which is determined to have the Saudi monarchy overthrown. Whether Musharraf has been sincere in acting against Al Qaeda or not, the US and Saudi Arabia are convinced that his continuance in power is necessary to keep Al Qaeda under control, even if one is not able to neutralise it now.
The vigorous manner in which Saudi Arabia intervened in the drama by disclosing details of the commitment made by Nawaz in 2000 to keep away from Pakistan for 10 years in return for his freedom has once again revived his image as a political coward.
If Benazir and Nawaz were politically mature, they would have chosen to remain in exile till the forthcoming elections were over, help their parties improve their performance from exile and then return in triumph after their parties had won the elections. If their victory in the elections was decisive, even Saudi Arabia and the US would have found it difficult to intervene against them.
Pakistan is in for a period of enhanced political instability at a time when its Army is unable to establish its writ in the tribal areas. This should be a matter of concern for the international community. The present messy situation might have been avoided if the US had really wanted to encourage a return to genuine democracy in Pakistan. It wants continued military rule with a democratic facade----with Benazir providing the facade and Musharraf exercising the real power. This is unlikely to work. Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan will continue to haunt the US policy-makers for months to come.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
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